Comparing Cebu with Metro Manila by city name leaves out most of what matters to a buyer. Each has districts with their own supply, tenants and commutes, and the latest market reports describe the two at very different scales.
DMCI Project Research · Reviewed by a DMCI Property Advisor · Market figures as of each report's publication date. Last reviewed .
Key points
- Colliers' Q2 2026 report forecasts Metro Manila residential vacancy to peak at a record 25.6% by the end of 2026, then improve in 2027.
- Economic and affordable condominiums led Metro Manila demand in the first half of 2026, while new launches fell sharply.
- Colliers' July 2026 report expects about 45,000 condominium units across Visayas and Mindanao from 2026 to 2029, led by Cebu and Davao.
- That 45,000 is a regional figure. The public summary gives no Cebu-only vacancy or inventory number.
- Neither report says which city is the better buy. That depends on the district, the unit and what you plan to do with it.
What do the market terms mean?
Market reports use a handful of terms that sound alike but measure different things. Here is what each one counts.
| Term | What it counts |
|---|---|
| Vacancy | The share of completed units that nobody occupies at a given time. |
| Unsold inventory | Units that developers have launched or built but not yet sold. |
| Take-up | Units sold or leased during a period, such as a half-year. |
| New supply | Units completed and delivered during a period. |
| Forecast | An estimate of a future figure, based on the analyst's assumptions. |
Vacancy and unsold inventory describe separate problems. Vacancy is about finding occupants for finished units. Unsold inventory is about finding buyers. A building can be fully sold and still have many empty units.
What does the latest report say about Metro Manila?
Colliers Philippines published its Q2 2026 residential report on . Its public summary describes a Metro Manila market with high vacancy, oversupply and a large stock of unsold condominium units.
The report forecasts residential vacancy to reach a record 25.6% by the end of 2026, then improve in 2027 as condominium completions taper. Economic and affordable projects were the strongest segments in the first half of 2026. Condominium launches fell sharply as developers worked to sell ready-for-occupancy units first. Colliers also projects that the Bay Area will pass Fort Bonifacio as Metro Manila's largest condominium market by the end of 2026.
The summary credits government measures with supporting demand: the 4PH housing program, lower Pag-IBIG loan rates and higher mortgage ceilings.
Our reading: 25.6% is a forecast for the whole metro, and it says nothing about a single building. If you plan to rent out a unit, high vacancy means more finished units are competing for the same tenants. A district on its way to becoming the largest market, as Colliers expects of the Bay Area, also has the most units to compete with. Look for rent evidence in the specific building and the blocks around it.
What does the latest report say about Cebu?
Colliers' Visayas and Mindanao report came out on . It expects about 45,000 condominium units to be delivered across the two regions from 2026 to 2029, led by Cebu and Davao, with demand anchored on affordable and mid-income buyers. It notes developers shifting attention to cities such as Cebu, Davao and Iloilo. On the office side, Iloilo passed Cebu as the top office transaction hub in the first quarter of 2026.
A DMCI Homes release from describes Cebu City as the country's second-largest condominium market. The release does not cite a source for that ranking. DMCI Homes is selling in Cebu, so read it as the developer's view.
Our reading: the 45,000 units are spread over two regions and four years, and the public summary does not split them by city. It gives no Cebu vacancy figure. What it supports is narrower: a lot of new condominium supply is on its way to the region. The office result is one quarter's figure. Keep an eye on it if you are counting on office workers as tenants.
Why not hold a city figure up against one project?
Market statistics describe thousands of units. A project's figures describe one building. On October 11, 2026, our Kalea Heights research page showed 521 units available in its first tower, the Leia Building in Banawa.
Setting those 521 units against the 45,000 regional units, or against Metro Manila's 25.6% vacancy forecast, compares different things. One is a single building's unsold stock. The others are a two-region delivery pipeline and a metro-wide share of empty finished units.
Our reading: use market reports to understand direction. Use evidence from the building and its district to make the decision.
What should you compare instead?
Use the same checklist in both cities:
- the district itself, including new supply due nearby in the next few years;
- the same unit type and floor area, with price per sqm worked out the same way;
- rents for similar units nearby, keeping asking rent separate from rent actually agreed;
- the trips you would make each day, tried at the hours you would travel;
- monthly costs of owning, such as dues, real property tax, insurance and management;
- how long you plan to hold the unit, and what a slow rental or resale would cost you.
Our reading: if you will live in the unit, your routine and support network may count for more than market data. If you will rent it out, test your numbers with a lower rent and a longer empty period than you hope for.
Quick answers
What is the Metro Manila condo vacancy forecast for 2026?
Colliers' Q2 2026 report, published August 12, 2026, forecasts Metro Manila residential vacancy to peak at a record 25.6% by the end of 2026, then improve in 2027. It covers the whole metro and says nothing about any single building.
How many condominium units are coming to Cebu?
Colliers' July 2026 report expects about 45,000 condominium units to be delivered across Visayas and Mindanao from 2026 to 2029, led by Cebu and Davao. Its public summary does not give a Cebu-only figure.
What is the difference between vacancy and unsold inventory?
Vacancy is the share of completed units that nobody occupies. Unsold inventory is the stock of units that developers have not yet sold. A building can be fully sold and still have many empty units.
Is Cebu or Metro Manila the better place to buy a condo?
Neither report answers that. It depends on the district, the unit, the price and whether you will live in it or rent it out, so compare specific options with the same checklist.
Sources
- Colliers Philippines, Colliers Property Market Report | Q2 2026 Residential (public summary), .
- Colliers Philippines, VisMin Report | July 2026 | VisMin wins: Where growth begins and demand spins (public summary), .
- DMCI Homes, DMCI Homes Banks on Value-for-Money Edge in Mature Cebu Condo Market, .
- DMCI Condos, Kalea Heights research page (availability list), read .
Editorial disclosure: This article draws on the public summaries of two Colliers Philippines reports and on a DMCI Homes release, listed under Sources. Analysis is labelled "Our reading". Market statistics and forecasts reflect each report's period and publication date and do not guarantee future performance. This is not an official DMCI Homes publication, and DMCI Condos is not the DMCI Homes corporate website. Verify current information before making a purchase decision.
